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Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
Posted Tue 19 Sep 2023 at 3:02pm

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/bom-officially-declares-el-nino-underway-2023/102495394?utm_campaign=newsweb-article-new-share-null&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web


The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are
officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and
summer.

After months of anticipation, BOM has confirmed the world's most consequential climate driver, the El Niño
weather pattern, is active over the Pacific for the first time in eight years.

At a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, BOM also announced the lesser known, but also significant,
climate driver, known as a "positive" Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), has also developed.

The onset of the two major climate events means the remaining months of 2023 in Australia are likely to
be hot and dry, particularly in the eastern states.

Combined with the background warming of climate change, climate scientists have warned Australia could
be in for a summer of severe heat.

"When [an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole] occur together, that tends to increase the severity of
rainfall deficiencies," BOM's head of climate monitoring Karl Braganza said.

"Those conditions are accompanied by an increase in fire danger and
extremely hot days."

The announcement came as parts of New South Wales were put on alert for "catastrophic" fire danger,
with strong winds combining with unusually hot temperatures in the south-eastern parts of the state.

"We are already seeing extreme conditions in some parts of the continent, particularly the duration of heat
— so we've had an extended period of warm and dry weather to start spring," Dr Braganza said.

"Today we've had catastrophic fire conditions on the south coast of New
South Wales just to underscore that.